March 15th is known as the Ides of March. It was a Roman religious holiday notable as a deadline for settling debts. It became an inflection point in Roman history when Julius Caesar was assassinated in the Roman Senate on the Ides of March, 44 BC. Caesar’s killers believed themselves to be restoring the Roman Republic, but the chaos they ushered in would place it far beyond any hope of restoration.
Most Adventist commentators believe Caesar’s murder in his home city of Rome, after so many astonishing victories in foreign lands, was prefigured by the prophet Daniel in Daniel 11:19:
“Then he shall turn his face toward the fort of his own land: but he shall stumble and fall, and not be found.”
After a chaotic period of rule by three dictators (the “triumvirate”), and then civil war among the three, Caesar’s great-nephew Octavian, who was later styled Caesar Augustus, emerged as the sole emperor of Rome. It was in Augustus’ reign that Christ was born. Augustus is prefigured in Daniel 11:20:
“Then shall stand up in his estate a raiser of taxes in the glory of the kingdom: but within a few days he shall be destroyed, neither in anger, nor in battle.”
We know who this passage refers to because the “raiser of taxes” is identified in Luke 2:1 as Caesar Augustus: “And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.” Hence, the identity of the subject of Dan. 11:20 is one of very few solid and non-controversial aspects of the entire chapter.
The prophet states that “within a few days he shall be destroyed, neither in anger, nor in battle.” On the 19th day of the month renamed in his honor, August, AD 14, Augustus died while visiting Nola where his father had died. Roman historians Tacitus and Cassius Dio both report that Augustus’ wife, Livia, was rumored to have poisoned him with figs. Why did Livia do it? Not in anger, but to put her own son, Tiberius, on the throne.
The prophet describes Tiberius thusly:
“And in [Augustus’] estate shall stand up a vile person, to whom they shall not give the honour of the kingdom: but he shall come in peaceably, and obtain the kingdom by flatteries.” (Dan. 11:21 KJV)
“[Augustus] will be succeeded by a contemptible person who has not been given the honor of royalty. He will invade the kingdom when its people feel secure, and he will seize it through intrigue.” (Dan. 11:21, NIV)
Daniel’s prophecy that Tiberius was not given “the honor of royalty” might refer to the fact that he was not Augustus’ biological son. He was Livia’s son from a previous marriage, hence not directly in the royal line. Tradition holds that Augustus had once said to Livia, “your son is too vile to wear the purple of Rome.” But as various other candidates fell away (or were murdered by Livia), he very reluctantly made Tiberius his successor, and Livia arranged to end his life before he could make other arrangement regarding an heir.
Another possible fulfillment of the prophecy that Tiberius would not be ”given the honor of the kingdom,” or was not “given the honor of royalty” might be in the fact that, according to Roman historians Tacitus and Suetonius, he refused to bear the titles “Pater Patriae” (father of the country), “Imperator,” (commander) and “Augustus,” and declined the most solid emblem of the office of Princeps (“first, foremost”), the Civic Crown and laurels. Thus, Tiberius literally was not given the royal honors that August, and emperors subsequent to Tiberius, were given.
That he “would obtain the kingdom by flatteries” probably refers to the fact that Livia managed to put her son on the throne, and keep him there, by importuning her husband, Augustus, and through constant scheming, conspiring and intrigue. The NIV actually uses the word “intrigue.” (It has been over 35 years since I read Robert Graves’ classic historical novel “I Claudius,” which chronicles Livia’s intrigue, so I am rusty on the details, but I remember that her scheming was ceaseless and frequently deadly, and my history professor, Erwin Sicher, confirmed that Graves was accurate.)
History leaves us in no doubt that Tiberius was a vile, contemptible person. Although initially conscientious and hardworking, after 13 years, he left Rome for his Villa on the island of Capri, and never returned to Rome. He became increasingly murderous and vindictive, executing people for ever more trivial offenses, real or imagined. Suetonius states that “every day brought a new execution.” One senator was killed for having brought a coin with Tiberius’ likeness into a public restroom, which the emperor deemed to be disrespectful.
Tiberius became extremely debauched, turning his Capri lair into a pleasure palace of sensual indulgence. In the sumptuous gardens, young men and women dressed as nubile nymphs and Pans prostituted themselves to guests in wooded “lechery nooks.”
Tiberius gave himself over to pedophilia and pederasty. Children of both sexes, gathered from all corners of the Roman world and trained in unusual sexual practices, were brought to Capri’s marble halls to excite the aging emperor's flagging libido. Many of the rooms were furnished with pornography and explicit sex manuals, in case anyone was unsure of what was expected of them. Even the louche citizens of the Rome of that day were scandalized by Tiberius’ vile behavior, and referred to him as “the old goat.”
“Then an overwhelming army will be swept away before him; both it and a prince of the covenant will be destroyed.” Dan. 11:22 NIV
“And with the arms of a flood shall they be overflown from before him, and shall be broken; yea, also the prince of the covenant.” Dan. 11:22 KJV
The first part of verse 22 might refer to the first part of Tiberius’ reign, when he was enjoying military success in Germany. A very capable Roman general named Germanicus invaded Germany between the Rhine and the Elbe, and won several victories over the German tribes led by Arminius (Hermann), who had utterly destroyed three Roman legions led by Publius Quinctilius Varus at the Battle of the Teutoberg Forest a few years earlier, in 9 AD. The Teutoberg Forest was one of the worst defeats in Rome’s entire 800 year history. Perhaps the prophecy can be read as predicting that the tribes that overwhelmed Varus were overwhelmed by Germanicus. Germanicus recovered two of the three lost eagles from those legions.
Germanicus was given a triumph in Rome in AD 17, the first such ceremony the city had seen since 29 BC, and was granted control over the eastern part of the empire. But apparently Livia saw him as a threat to her son, so she had an ally, Gnaeus Capurnius Piso, the governor of Syria, poison him in 19 AD. Piso was recalled to Rome and was to have been tried for Germanicus’ murder, but when it became apparent that the Senate would not support him, he committed suicide.
The second part of Daniel 11:22 is another anchor point in the chapter, because the “prince of the covenant” is clearly Jesus Christ. Daniel 9:25 refers to Jesus as “Messiah the prince” and verse 27 states that “he will confirm the covenant with many.” Hence, we can be certain that when Daniel 11:22 states that the prince of the covenant would “be broken,” it is referring to Jesus Christ’s death by crucifixion in 31 AD. “And when he had given thanks, he brake it, and said, Take, eat: this is my body, which is broken for you.” 1 Cor. 11:31.
Tiberius decided to make Germanicus’ third son, Caligula, (who was also the son of Augustus’ granddaughter, Agrippina the Elder) his heir and successor. (Caligula’s real name was Gaius, but as a young child in his father’s army camp he was given a soldier’s uniform, including boots, which he proudly stomped around in; his father’s soldiers called him Caligula—“little boot”—and the nickname stuck throughout his life.)
In AD 37, the 77 year-old Tiberius took part in military exercises and injured his shoulder throwing a javelin. On returning to Capri, he lapsed into a coma, and everyone thought he was dead. Caligula removed the imperial ring, put it on his own finger and presented himself to the public as the new emperor. Then Tiberius awoke from his coma and demanded food. Macro, commander of the Praetorian Guard, entered his bedchamber and finished him off by smothering. It was March 16, 37 AD.
Not surprisingly, Caligula learned all the wrong lessons from Tiberius, and began his reign at a level of debauchery and cruel whim that Tiberius had reached only late in life. It became necessary to assassinate Caligula less than four years later, in January, 41 AD.